According to the latest report from the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), based on the Market Expectations Survey (REM), the median projection for the official exchange rate is approximately $1.50 per US dollar towards December 2025, while for November, an average of $1.463 is calculated. Analysts anticipate that the monthly inflation rate could hover around 2% for the coming months, gradually decreasing to between 1.6% and 1.7% by April 2026. According to the document released by the BCRA, the expected annual nominal variation for the exchange rate stands at around 47% for the end of 2025, revealing a moderate degree of currency depreciation compared to previous years. This scheme, as analysts explain, plays a stabilizing role by limiting abrupt jumps in the dollar and offering predictability to the market. The forecasts also reflect moderately positive expectations for economic activity: a 0.5% drop in real GDP is expected in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, and a 0.3% growth in the fourth quarter. For the entire year, an expansion of 3.9% compared to 2024 is estimated. From there, the trend is downward: 1.8% in January 2026; 1.7% in February and March; and 1.6% in April. For the first quarter of 2026, a gradual advance is expected: $1,525 in January, $1,553 in February, $1,575 in March, and up to $1,582 in April, with an estimate of $1,679 after 12 months. In terms of inflation, the 42 participants in the survey project a moderate rise in prices: the general price index (CPI) is expected to be around 2% monthly in the last months of 2025, following a 2.2% estimated for October. Any potential surge in regulated prices, tariffs, or alternative exchange rates could compromise the projected trajectory. In conclusion, the REM reflects a market that expects the end of 2025 with a certain degree of exchange rate stability and a relatively controlled monthly inflation by recent standards. Core inflation would also show improvements, with estimates close to 2.1% for October and then decreasing. The framework establishes that the current exchange rate band system will remain until the beginning of next year, with the upper ceiling set at around $1,499.50 adjusted at a monthly rate of 1%. Regarding the labor market, the unemployment rate for the July-September period was 7.5%, with an estimate of 7.2% for the end of the year. The scheme envisioned by the Government—headed by Javier Milei—seeks precisely to reduce exchange rate volatility, order expectations, and achieve a gradual slowdown in inflation without resorting to abrupt devaluations or exchange chaos. Buenos Aires, November 8, 2025 – Total News Agency-TNA – However, this favorable outlook depends on maintaining the flow of foreign currency, containing residual inflation, and avoiding external or internal shocks that could alter the scenario. In this sense, Milei has stated that he has no plans to modify the exchange rate scheme 'and we are going to continue maintaining it'.
